Investors wonder if it is relevant to sell the greenback as a safe haven or to buy because the US economy performs better than the euro-area. Therefore, the EURUSD tends to consolidate. Let us discuss this and make up a trading plan.submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Weekly US dollar fundamental forecastThe market is like an ocean; the calm follows the storm. But calm sometimes is anxious; investors can’t define the further trend direction. Investors start exiting longs on the US stocks amid the record number of hospitalizations in the USA. Besides, the number of new COVID-19 cases is above 100,000 per day during nine consecutive days, and some US governors impose new restrictions. Another strict lockdown will hardly occur, but local isolation will result in job losses and an economic downturn. The EURUSD bulls will lose the major benefit if the S&P 500 fails to continue the rally.
The euro is supported by easing the market uncertainty and the hope for the global GDP recovery amid the vaccination. The US dollar could benefit from the divergence in economic expansion and monetary policies. According to 90% of 65 Wall Street Journal experts, the financial markets' uncertainty will ease as the US voting results are announced, and there is positive news about the vaccines. 80% of specialists expect the market to stabilize soon. According to Christine Lagarde, the ECB sees far less uncertainty than before amid Joe Biden's victory, progress on Brexit, and successful vaccine tests. The more clarity there is in the market, the less reason to buy safe-haven assets, including the US dollar.
On the other hand, the greenback should benefit from US economic performance. According to Wall Street Journal experts, the euro-area economy is likely to face a double recession while the US economy will show better results than earlier expected. The US GDP should contract by 2.7%, compared to the previously expected drop of 3.6%. The unemployment rate will drop to 6.7%, not to 7.8%. The risk of another downturn within twelve months has been significantly down.
Dynamics of risk of US economic recession
Source: Wall Street Journal
The forecasts of experts look optimistic, but the pandemic does not end. Jerome Powell warns that the next few months will be tough for the United States and that it is too early to assess the impact of vaccine news on the economy's development. New restrictions can discourage those who think the glass is half full.
If the greenback loses the advantage of growth divergence, it may benefit from underestimating uncertainty. There are more than enough reasons for uncertainty growth. It is not known whether Washington's attitude towards Beijing will soften under Biden. It is unknown if Democrats and Republicans will find common ground over the fiscal stimulus. 58% of Wall Street Journal experts expect the stimulus of $1 trillion -$2 trillion, 29% expect less than $1 trillion, 13% predict a stimulus package of $2.1 trillion -$3 trillion.
Weekly EURUSD trading planTherefore, some benefits of the US dollar have exhausted, some still work. That is why the EURUSD trend is not clear. If the pair breaks out the resistance at 1.1845, the bulls should go ahead. On the other hand, if the price goes below the support at 1.176, the bears can take control.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
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FOREX StrategiesWhat are FOREX Strategies?
You may have noticed that most of people confuse the terminology and refer to FOREX Strategies in the wrong way. There are methodologies, systems, strategies, and techniques. The most effective methodology is Price Language (Trend Tracking). Combined with a correct reading of mass psychology presented by the charts.
We know that in the Stock Markets there are thousands of strategies. FOREX, like the rest of the markets, presents you with the opportunity to apply similar strategies to win consistently. Taking advantage of repetitive psychological patterns.
First, the Price Language methodology has created great fortunes in FOREX, and the next fortune may be yours. But this methodology must be implemented within a framework of advanced concepts of Markets. Without forgetting the basics. And working hard day by day.
Second, a strategy is a set of parameters and techniques that together give you the advantage to act in any situation. Thus for example in war, generals have attack strategies and counterattack strategies.
FOREX strategies alike are entry strategies and exit strategies. All beginners should know these FOREX strategies for beginners. That way you will get a general idea of the game and understand that trading is a war against the Market and its Specialists. Only applying FOREX strategies revealed by the same Specialists and using their own techniques,
... you can survive in this war.
Do not fall into the trap of the many "systems" and "methods" that are offered on the internet about operating in the FOREX Market. They just don't work in the long run. They are strategies based on indicators for the most part. Using rigid parameters. That if they can work and give profitability during a certain period of time, they will always reach a breaking point when the market changes its dynamics.
Instead, take advantage of your precious time and learn the Language of Price or Price Action.
The Language methodology will allow you to adapt to each new phase of the Market. If you combine this knowledge with the appropriate psychological concepts, you can live comfortably from speculation in FOREX.
Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Basic FOREX StrategiesYou have two basic FOREX strategies, one entry, and one exit. Both follow a general strategy that helps you capitalize on the collective behaviors of the Market. That is, of the total of participating speculators.
This behavior causes the formation of cycles that repeat over and over again. Driven by the basic emotions (uncertainty, greed, and panic) of the speculators involved that can be taken advantage of with the aforementioned FOREX strategies. Specialists identify these emotions in the order flow and capitalize on these events every hour, every day, and every month.
Basic FOREX Strategies - The Price Cycle
These repetitive cycles consist of 4 phases:
The two trends can be easily identified by their notorious breakdown. And the two areas of uncertainty (accumulation and distribution), due to their notorious range trajectories.
This general behavior determines the core of our FOREX strategies.
You buy when the price of a pair has broken and has come out of one of its congestion formations (accumulation or distribution). You implement one of the Forex strategies, in this case, the entry one.
The multi-time technique will help you find the point of least risk when entering your initial buy or sell order. In the same way and using the same strategy but this time to close your position, the multiple timing technique will also show you how to close your operation obtaining the highest possible profit.
The most consistent way to extract profits in the market is by trading the start of trends within a cycle . Once confirmed by their respective breaks from the areas of uncertainty. This is the mother of all FOREX strategies . And in a market that operates 24 hours, we have more frequent cycles and therefore more opportunities.
Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Advanced Forex StrategiesThere are many advanced FOREX strategies that are generally used by professional speculators working for large financial firms.
Among these firms are banks, Investment Fund managers and Hedge Fund managers. The latter is an investment modality similar to Investment Funds, with the difference that Hedge Funds use more complex investment strategies. Its operations are more oriented to aggressive speculations in the short and medium-term.
Among the most common strategies is hedging (hedging), carry trade, automated systems based on quantum mathematics. And a large number of combinations between the different option strategies.
The Carry TradeThe central idea of Carry Trade is to buy a pair in which the base currency has a considerably higher interest rate than the quoted currency. To earn the difference in rates regardless of whether the price of the pair rises or falls.
Suppose we buy a $ 100,000 lot of AUDJPY, which according to the rates on the chart would turn out to be the ideal instrument in this example to use the Forex carry trade strategy.
As our capital is in US dollars we have to assume for our example, the following quotes necessary to perform the place calculations:
AUD / JPY = 80.00 USD / JPY = 85.00
What happens internally in your broker is this.
The great advantage of carry trade FOREX strategies is that this percentage profit is applied to the $ 100,000 of the standard lot; the broker transfers all of the profit to you, even if you only contributed $ 1,000. On the other hand, if you carry out the inverse of this operation, this benefit of the Forex carry trade becomes a cost (swap), and you assume it completely.
Remember that FOREX carry trade strategies are recommended for pairs with considerable interest rate differences, such as the one we have just seen in our example.
These FOREX strategies should also not be used in isolation. The idea is that through technical analysis you identify when would be the ideal time to enter the market using your carry trade Forex strategy and multiply your profits considerably.
What FOREX Strategies Do Hedge Funds Use?The FOREX strategies used by large fund managers do not constitute an advantage in terms of percentage results for them, nor do they constitute a competitive disadvantage for you.
The vast majority of them fail because of their big egos. In fact, there was a firm made up of great financial geniuses, including 2 winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics, who developed a strategy based on quantum mathematical calculations.
With an initial base capital of about 3 billion dollars, and after 3 successful years obtaining annual returns of over 40%, the firm Long-Term Capital Management, begins its fourth year with losses. To counteract these losses the geniuses decide to multiply the initial capital several times, while the losses continued.
The year closed with the bankruptcy of the fund, and with a total accumulated loss of 1 trillion dollars, due to the great leverage used. And all for not admitting that the FOREX Strategies of Long Term Capital Management were not in line with the dynamics of the Market.
There are an overwhelming number of opportunities in the stock markets to make money interpreting the Language of Price.
You don't need to use complex "advanced" strategies that have been created to handle hundreds or billions of dollars.
The reasons for using these FOREX strategies are very different from what a "retail trader" pursues with his small speculation business.
As you can see, you should not worry about wanting to integrate any of these advanced strategies into your arsenal. They are only beneficial for managing hundreds or billions of dollars, where the return parameters are very different when you handle small amounts of capital.
Do not worry about collecting hundreds of free FOREX strategies that circulate on the internet, that great accumulation of mediocre information will only serve to confuse you and waste your valuable time.
Spend that time learning Price Action,
… And you will always be one step behind the Specialists, identifying each new Market condition, and anticipating the vast majority of reversals of all prices.
Ironically, the most successful fund managers indicate that their most profitable trades are those based on the basic trend-following strategies of the Price Language. The same ones that you will learn in this Free Course.
Dedicate yourself to perfecting them and believe me you won't need anything else. As long as you have good risk management, taking into consideration the following points ...
Styles of Investments in FOREXThe Investment FOREX long term is not recommended for small investors like you and me. If we take into account the term investing literally as large investors do who buy a financial product today to sell it years later.
We both have a better niche in the short and medium-term.
You may have noticed that the big multi-year trends in the Forex Market do exist. But minor swings within a big trend are usually very wide.
These minor movements allow us to easily double and triple the annual return of the big general trend, motivating most traders to speculate in the short and medium-term.
These minor oscillations or trends that occur within the large multi-year trends owe their occurrence mainly to two reasons.
First, the FOREX Market presents 3 sessions a day each in different cities of the world with different time zones (Asia, Europe, and America). This causes more frequent trend changes than in the rest of the stock markets.
Second, the purpose for which it was created also plays a role. The modern Foreign Exchange Market, since its inception in 1972, was conceived by the global financial system as a tool for speculation. To obtain benefits in the short and medium-term (from several days to 1 year).
These two points are basically the reasons why we observe the immense speed with which the FOREX market changes trends.
For example, for those who live in America, in the early morning (Europe) the EURUSD pair may be on the rise, in the morning or afternoon (America) it may be down, and then finally at night (Asia) it may return to the rise.
Define your Own Style for your FOREX InvestmentsOne of the first decisions you will have to make is to choose your style as a trader or investor.
There are 4 types of well-defined styles.
Most professional traders tend to have multiple styles, although they always identify with one primary style for their FOREX investments. Study the characteristics of the 4 main styles to make your investments in FOREX :
1. Long Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per month to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 year to 5 years.
2. Medium Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per week to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 month to 1 year.
3. Short Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time, or who already has a certain time operating in the long and medium-term, showing constant profits, and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per day to your investments in FOREX. The period of an open position ranges from 1 day to 1 month.
4. Intraday : recommended only for people with a fairly solid earnings record in the short term, and with a capital greater than $ 50,000. As we have noted, this option constitutes a full-time job.
People who start investing in FOREX , should start executing short-term (weeks) and medium-term (months) transactions only, and not pay attention to intraday oscillations (day trading).
If you are interested in being an intraday speculator, I recommend that you first exhaust at least a year doing operations in the short and medium-term to assimilate the correct strategies and to develop the necessary mentality to carry out this work.
The second option would be to participate in some kind of intensive training.
I remind you that self-educating is almost impossible in speculation. You are likely to accumulate a lot of knowledge by reading books and attending courses. But you will probably never learn to make money with all the incomplete "systems" circulating on the internet.
Mistakes to Avoid When Looking for Your StyleMany people who are new to FOREX investments make the mistake of combining these styles, which is a key to failure.
I recommend that if you are not getting the results you expected by adopting one of these styles, do not try to change it. The problem sure is not in the style, but in your strategies or in your psychology.
A successful investor is able to make a profit in any longer trading time than he is used to. I explain. If you are already a profitable operator in the short term, it is very likely that you will also be profitable in the medium and long term,
… As long as you can interpret the Language of Price or Price Action.
In the opposite case, the same would not happen. If you were a medium-term trader, you would need time to adjust to the intraday. The reality is that long, medium and short term traders have very similar personalities. The intraday trader is completely different.
The Myth of the Intraday in Investments in FOREXIf you are already successful in the short, medium and long term, you will notice that the sacrifice and the hours necessary in front of the computer to operate intraday is much greater. The intraday style will be useful to increase your account if it is less than USD $ 100,000 in a very short time in exchange for 8 to 12 hours a day of hard work but ...
You must first develop the necessary skills to operate the intraday.
The ideal is to combine all the styles to get more out of the Market and carry out more effective transactions and have a diversification in your investments in FOREX.
There are intraday traders that are very successful, but the reality is that there are very few in the world that make a profit year after year. If you want to become an intraday, you just have to prepare yourself properly through intensive training.
Otherwise, I recommend that you don't even think about educating yourself to adopt the intraday style. It is not necessary to go against a probability of failure greater than 99%. Unless
... your ego is greater than your common sense.
The main reason why this style of investments in FOREX is not recommended for the vast majority of us "retail investors" (the official term "retail traders"), is the high operational cost.
The real commissions in this market range between $ 2.0 and $ 2.50 for each lot of 100,000 virtual units. This means that a complete operation (opening and closing) is approximately $ 5.00, for each standard lot traded ($ 100,000 virtual).
Another fundamental reason is the advent of robotic traders (HFT = High-Frequency Trading), which tend to manipulate the market in the shorter intraday swings. Please do not confuse HFTs with automated systems that we find daily on the internet, and that can be purchased for a few hundred dollars and often for free on FOREX forums / groups.
These HFTs to which I refer, they are effective. They cost millions of dollars and have been developed by the large Wall Street financial firms to manage their investments in FOREX.
The reality of the intraday trader is that you execute orders for large lots at the same time, to profit from the smallest movements in the market. It is an activity based on reflexes. The slightest oversight or distraction can turn into a catastrophe for your FOREX investments.
I recommend that you start investing in FOREX using slow time periods such as H4 or Daily. For some reason, all Goldman Sachs intraday FOREX investments are made with algorithms.
Finally…To choose your style as a trader and manage your investments in FOREX, first determine what your degree of experience is, analyze the points mentioned below and the rest you will discover when you execute your first operations.
The points that will affect your decision are:
And I hope you are one of those who get up over and over again. The next lesson will boost your confidence when you discover the main reason that moves currencies ...
Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading RedditThe fundamental analysis in Forex is used mostly by long-term investors. Players as we saw in the styles of operators, start a negotiation today, to close it years later.
I always emphasize the importance that the mass media give to this type of analysis to distract the great mass of participants.
It is all part of a great mass psychological manipulation. For centuries the ignorance of the masses has been organized before the great movements begin.
The important news are the macroeconomic reports published by the Central Banks and other government agencies destined for this work. All reports are made up. 99% of them are corrected months later.
These events are tools to justify fundamental analysis and price cleaning movements. Any silly headline does the job. With this, it is possible to absorb most of the existing liquidity, before the new trend phase is projected.
Reaction!Except in rare situations, the result of an economic report of the fundamental analysis is generally already assimilated in the graph. In most cases, there are financial institutions that already have access to this information and are organizing and carrying out their operations in advance.
The phrase buy the rumor and sell the news is a very old adage on Wall Street. And its meaning contains what we have just explained. For the investor who can interpret the Language of Price, fundamental analysis is of little importance. Well, in general, their disclosure does not indicate that you have to take any action in your open trades , as long as your entry strategy provides you with a good support cushion.
This reality of fundamental analysis causes a lot of confusion for investors who lack in-depth knowledge of the forex market.
Macroeconomic DataThe data published in these events is irrelevant. Both for speculators and for the people in general. They are false. They lack reliability.
The price can go up or down with the same result of the data. The main ones are:
- Interest Rates - GDP (gross domestic product) - CPI (inflation) - ISM (manufacturing index) - NFP (payroll) - Double Deficits (deficit = fiscal + balance of payments)
If you are initiated, I recommend you avoid operating near these events. It is only a matter of having the time pending. Use the economic calendar for Fundamental Analysis of Forex Factory.
There is a probabilistic advantage in operating these fundamental analysis events. But it takes preparation, experience, and practice. They represent a way of diversifying in the general operation of a speculator.
The Uncertainty of Fundamental AnalysisOn many occasions after the disclosure of an economic report, the price movement of the currency pair that is going to be affected tends to move in the opposite direction to the logic of the report.
I show you an example of a fundamental analysis report. Imagine that the EUR / USD pair is trading at 1.2500, and the FED (US Federal Reserve) issues a statement announcing that it has just raised inter-bank interest rates from 0.25 points to 0.75 points. Very positive news for the US dollar that logically implies an appreciation of the currency and consequently an instantaneous collapse of the EUR / USD pair (up the dollar and down the euro)
However, minutes after the release of said fundamental analysis report, the pair after effectively collapsing to 1.2400, returns and returns to its levels prior to the report (1.2500). This situation is very common , but it is not so easy to identify it when it is occurring, but after the damage is done.
Traps like these devour the accounts of beginners who approach the market with little experience, with weak strategies, and especially with very little experience.
That is why I reiterate that you forget the fundamental analysis for now. Just keep in mind when operating, that there is no publication scheduled nearby. Just check the economic calendar for the day and forget about the numbers. Let the economists mess around with the data.
FOREX Market CorrelationThe Forex market correlation exists between pairs with similar "base" currencies and not always under the same circumstances. The correlation in the Forex market that is most followed and that has the greatest impact on fundamental analysis is that of the US dollar (USD).
The USD is the most traded monetary unit with a volume greater than 80% with respect to the rest of the currencies. This fact determines why their correlation is the most important, the most followed, and perhaps the only one worth following in the fundamental macro analysis.
The 7 major pairs are usually in sync . These 7 pairs all include the USD and present a fundamental analysis correlation almost 75% of the time. Influencing the rest of the currency pairs.
Advantages of the FOREX Market CorrelationIn the fundamental analysis the most basic FOREX correlation is the following. When the USD appreciates, the USD / CAD, USD / CHF, and USD / JPY pairs tend to go up in price. This indicates that the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY) are losing value against the USD.
We must bear in mind that this correlation does not occur 100% of the time. In fact, the JPY generally tends to move in the opposite direction , since in recent decades this currency has been used as a source of financing to invest in other financial instruments.
On the other side is the FOREX market correlation that generates a movement almost in unison in the other 4 major pairs EUR / USD, GBP / USD, AUD / USD, and NZD / USD. These tend to fall in price, homologous the appreciation of the USD. But not always.
In this case the fundamental analysis correlation works most of the time, between 65 and 85% of the time. Small differences are noted in the extent that each of these pairs experiences.
There is also a correlation in the secondary FOREX market, where the pairs of all currencies that do not include the USD participate, but I recommend you not to waste time on them for now. There are more important things about the Language of Price to know first.
FOREX Commodity CorrelationIn this part I will explain to you in a basic way the Correlation Commodities - FOREX of the fundamental analysis.
There are three currencies that have a direct correlation with commodities. They are usually called: "COMDOLLS" which is short for "Commodities Dollars" (Commodities Dollars), since all three obey the dollar denomination. These are:
- The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) - The Australian Dollar (AUD) - The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
These three currencies make up the group of the 8 largest together with the euro, the pound, the yen, the franc and the US dollar. Together, they merge to produce the major pairs traded in the FOREX Foreign Exchange Market.
The FOREX Commodity Correlation has an affinity in most cases greater than 75%. And each of them has its different raw material of correlation. You will notice that the NZD and the AUD are two currencies that act practically in unison. Both present minimal discrepancies in their fluctuations in the short, medium and long term.
This is mainly because their economies are very similar and their economic and fiscal policies are too. Their main production items also show great similarities, despite the fact that the Australian economy is much larger than the New Zealand economy.
The raw materials that follow the movement of the AUD are mainly gold and copper. If you put the history of these three quotes during the last decade of the year 2,000 together on the same chart, you will notice a very similar upward movement between the three quotes. Pure correlation of fundamental analysis.
This strong correlation with commodities in the metals area for the AUD has provided Australia with an economic advantage enviable over the other major powers that have seen their currencies devalue sharply against the AUD. At the same time, they experience a constant decrease in the purchasing power of their citizens.
The NZD maintains a correlation with raw materials related to agriculture and livestock, mainly including milk and its derivatives. It is one of the countries that dominates the world export of these economic items, and also has important exports of metals , although in smaller quantities than Australia.
Finally, you have a correlation with raw materials in the energy area. For historical reasons the CAD, which is not the largest oil producer in the world, but an important supplier to the largest consumer that is the US, has seen its currency oscillate in line with oil prices.
To make long-term investments in the Foreign Exchange Market, it is necessary to take into consideration at least one Commodity Correlation - FOREX in your fundamental analysis.
Forex Technical Analysis RedditThe technical analysis is the methodology that interprets the movements of the price. Specialists look for liquidity to fund their business. The repetition of the strategies used by the specialists in their work generate repetitive patterns.
If you were an analyst, you would develop the visual ability to identify such patterns on a graph. If you were a programmer you would quantify them mathematically using complex formulas.
And if you could learn to interpret the Language of Price, you would have the ability to anticipate 90% of all movements that occur on a chart. And in this business, anticipating is what will make you money.
Market prices are reflected and framed on a horizontal time axis and a vertical price axis. Prices go up or down according to the aggressiveness of the participating operators. In an efficient or balanced market these oscillations should be imperceptible.
But in reality this is not the case, since the Market works thanks to the digital printing of hundreds of billions of units of paper money systematically distributed by the Central Banks through the banking system. These resources serve as a tool to manipulate 100% of the movements that occur in the FOREX Market.
Are you looking for Technical Indicators? All technical indicators were created from the 70's. How do you think that for more than 200 years the speculators of the past accumulated great wealth?
With the Language of Price. The best timing is given by the price itself. Indicator-generated entry signals usually occur at the wrong time.
The basis of technical analysis is human psychology. Unfortunately, human beings are not perfect and are loaded with emotions that dominate their behavior in similar situations, creating repetitive and highly predictable behavior when it occurs in masses.
The study of technical analysis through indicators and subjective training, originates and shapes the collective thinking on which all the traps that specialists execute every day to maintain their business are designed. If the majority won, the Market would cease to exist.
Although you already know that the patterns are not generated by the masses , but the repetitive behavior of the Specialists in the face of the action response of the masses. It is very easy for speculaists, because they can see everyone's orders in their books.
And they also exert a great influence on the decisions of the masses through the mass media. It is what I call the war between the Egg and the Stone , if you hit me you win and if I hit you also you win.
The Deception of Modern Technical AnalysisThrough the centuries thousands of people have been able to extract great benefits from the financial markets by applying the basic strategies of technical analysis and the psychology of the Price Language.
More than 200 years ago when the markets began to operate officially, fundamental analysis predominated, which was only used by large financial institutions. As this analysis tool began to become popular, these institutions began to apply the strategies of technical analysis.
In recent decades and with the massification of internet technology, technical analysis has begun to be handled by anyone who has a computer with internet access. The same financial institutions, which have been present for more than a century and as a result of this overcrowding , establish a strategy to confuse and misinform about the true strategies of technical analysis.
This has been accomplished in the following manner. Currently there are hundreds, if not thousands of technical indicators that have been developed by so-called "gurus" of technical analysis and that sell their magic indicators packed in a "system" or "method" that usually cost thousands of dollars, or simply with the publication of a book with which they generate large profits. Double benefit.
The aim is to confuse the initiates in speculation and create the collective mentality that will originate the same behaviors over and over again. About 95% of these new entrants completely lose all the capital they invest in their early stages as investors.
Leaving them with a negative experience and creating the idea and the image that financial markets are an exclusive area for geniuses with high academic levels and that only they can produce returns in the markets year after year.
The initiate, having lost all his original capital, turns to these “gurus” for help and teachings. You spend more capital on the products they offer you and the cycle repeats itself . Obviously, the vast majority do not relapse and completely forget to re-engage in the stock markets.
I hope you have not been a victim of this drama.
Now I will show you the simplicity of a FOREX technical analysis , without the need to resort to any indicator as a tool to determine an effective entry or exit strategy when planning your operations.
The Price CyclePreviously you studied in the FOREX strategies lesson, that the typical price cycle when it is reflected in a graph, presents four very specific phases and very easy to identify if you perform a technical analysis with common sense . These are:
You will be surprised by the simplicity with which thousands of people around the world and over the centuries have accumulated large sums of money by drawing a few simple lines and applying responsible risk management with their capital.
How to Identify Trends?Being able to determine the trend phases within the price cycle is the essence of technical analysis since it is these two phases that provide you with the probabilistic advantage you need to operate in the markets and obtain constant returns.
In the most plain and simple language, in the world of technical analysis, there are only two types of formations: trends and ranges.
The trends, in turn, can be bullish if they go up, or bearish if they go down. The ranges, on the other hand, can be accumulation if they are at the beginning of the cycle, or distribution if they are in the high part of the cycle. As I had indicated in the topic of FOREX strategies when describing the price cycle.
This sounds more like a play on words, but I will show you the practical definition to simplify your life and then you will apply these definitions on the graph so that everything makes more sense to you.
Some key points from the graph:
The Common Sense, The Less Common of SensesThe central idea of technical analysis consists in determining the price situation of a market, that is, in which phase of the pattern of its cycle it is currently conjugated with the collective thinking of the masses and the possible traps that the market would have prepared to remove. the capital at stake by the public.
To carry out a precise technical analysis, you will use the support and resistance lines, which can be static (horizontal) or dynamic (projecting an angle with respect to the horizontal axis).
Your common sense prevails here.
If you show a 10-year-old a chart, they will be able to tell you if the price is going up or down. You will most likely have no idea how to draw the lines, but you will be able to establish the general trend. Simply using your common sense.
By introducing indicators and other gadgets , the simplicity and effectiveness of the technical analysis created by your common sense evaporates.
The following graph conceptually shows you all the possible situations in which you could draw these lines to carry out your technical analysis of the place. You can clearly observe a downtrend delimited by its dynamic trend line and an uptrend on the right side with its respective dynamic delimitation.
Forex Charts AnalysisI want to remind you that the formations or patterns that develop on the charts (triangles, wedges, pennants, boxes, etc.) only work to execute trades that have initially been confirmed by the static support and resistance lines and to read the collective thinking of the masses.
Chart formations work, but you must know the Language of Price to determine when the Specialists will exploit a chartist figure, or when they will allow it to run. In fact, you will learn with the Language that you can operate a chart figure in any direction.
Much of the "mentalization" that the masses receive is to believe that the figures are made to be respected. Which is an inefficient way of working. Simply because you could wait days or months for a perfect chart figure to occur in order to perform a reliable trade. When in fact there are dozens every day.
Japanese CandlesOf all the tools you have to carry out technical analysis, perhaps the best known and most popular is the Japanese technique of candles (candlesticks).
Candles are mainly used to identify reversal points on the chart without resorting to confirmation of horizontal trend lines and only using a previous bar or candle breaks.
Its correct use is subject to a multi-time analysis (multiple temporalities) and a general evaluation of the context proposed by the market in general at the time of each scenario.
Later I will show you all the important details to take into account so that you use Japanese candles in a simple and very effective way.
Do not forget ... Trading in your beginnings based on formations (chartism) and candlestick patterns conjugated with hundreds of tools and technical indicators, constitutes the perfect path to your failure. Before using any strategy or technique I recommend you focus on learning the Price Language, which includes 3 basic things:
Specialists make money every day at the expense of the collective behavior caused by the use of these strategies and techniques. With which you will only manage to lose your capital and your time by putting the cart in front of the horse.
People who do the opposite, at best become,
... Philosophers of Speculation, or indocile Robot Assistants or Expert Advisors.
To make money in any market condition, range or trend, you must use the technical analysis based on the Price Language and combine it with a correct psychological reading of the price. This knowledge can only be acquired through proper education and lots of supervised practice. Like any other career in life.
I hope you've found this guide helpful!
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Fundamental euro forecast todayThe single European currency is trading flat, and the traders wonder what signals they should consider. The price may go up following the pound, rising amid the UK's willingness to continue negotiation with the EU after the summit on October 15-16. It may also go down, following the US stock indexes. Steven Mnuchin has sent the S&P 500 down. The Treasury Secretary says a fiscal stimulus deal is unlikely to be reached before the election. It has started the sell-off in the US stock market and strengthened the greenback.
The dollar will now respond to pathetic speeches and promises. According to Donald Trump, the vote on November 3 is a choice between “historic prosperity” and a “steep depression.” The US president is focusing on economic expansion. It looks like Trump has ruled in two different countries. The first economy was flourishing and reached record highs of such indicators as employment, household incomes, and equity prices. The second economy has had the worst performance ever, being damaged by the COVID-19.
The Americans are ready to forgive Trump for unfulfilled promises about 3% GDP growth, reducing the foreign trade deficit, and building a wall on the Mexican border. However, they will hardly forgive the inefficient management of the pandemic. According to the Gallup survey, 56% of the respondents believed they were better off now compared to four years ago. It is more than that of Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama when they were re-elected. Simultaneously, the survey showed that Trump, in general, loses to Biden because of COVID-19.
The US pandemic management was inefficient, which cost the lives of more than 200,000 people. It is evident from Bloomberg's research, according to which, the pandemic management in the UK and the EU was more effective than in the US. It remains uncertain how long the fiscal stimulus will last in the US, and some aid packages have exhausted. Therefore, economic stimulating in the US was less effective than in the euro-area.
Economic effect of stimulus
The positive effect of the stimulus supported the EURUSD rally in the June-August period. Amid the timely and large-scale aid packages, the euro-area economy performed better than the US. The second wave of the pandemic turned everything upside down. Some European countries are currently closing schools, canceling surgeries, and recruiting medical students, getting prepared for a repeat of the nightmare scenario that took place in the spring.
Dynamics of leading economic indicators
EURUSD trading plan todayThe market is growing on rumors and falling on the facts. The EURUSD bulls hoped that the euro-area GDP recovery would be faster than in the USA. They are exiting longs now, being disappointed. If the euro breaks out the support at $1.1715, one could add up to the euro shorts entered level $1.178.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Weekly US dollar fundamental forecastThe ECB attempts to weaken the euro fail. Philip Lane says the ECB already pursues an inflation strategy similar to the Fed. The European Central Bank is unwilling to tighten monetary policy until the inflation growth is reflected in the economic data. Nonetheless, the EURUSD doesn’t react to the ECB’s chief economist's speech and consolidates above figure 18 bottom. According to the HSBC, fiscal policy is currently the main factor in the financial markets, and central banks must admit that they have lost some power.
Although the United States has invested in its economy more money than most other countries in the world and significantly more than during the previous economic crisis, the fiscal stimulus tends to exhaust quickly. The euro-area governments continue to support small businesses and individuals, while the US policymakers can’t reach an agreement on its extension. The new $1.8 trillion stimulus plan offered by the Republicans is the largest in scale and contrasts with Donald Trump's recent announcement to end negotiations with Democrats. However, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rejects it, calling the plan insufficient.
Sizes of fiscal stimulusSource: Bloomberg
Some analysts suggested the new Republican proposal fueled the rally of the US stock indexes. The S&P 500 was 3.8% up in the week through October 9, having featured the best performance since July. I believe the US stock market is rising as the uncertainty around the US presidential election is lowering. Joe Biden’s chance to win is rising, and his victory shouldn't be such a disaster for the US stock indexes as expected earlier.
According to RealClearPolitics, the gap between Biden and Trump is 9.6 percentage points. For comparison, in 2016, Hillary Clinton was 5.8 pp ahead of Donald Trump three weeks before the vote. JP Morgan suggests the corporate tax hike in the case of Joe Biden's victory will temporarily hinder the US stock market. The higher tax rate will take effect on January 1, 2022, and the S&P 500 is likely to face a storm in the fourth quarter of 2021. However, as the experience of 1987 and 2013 shows, when taxes were also increased, the storm would not last long. After the correction, the bulls should resume the uptrend.
S&P 500 reaction to a corporate tax hike
I believe the US stock market trend is a significant driver for the EURUSD. Ahead of the US presidential election, the pair follows the US stock indexes, mostly ignoring the ECB verbal interventions, the second COVID-19 wave, and the euro-area economic data.
Weekly EURUSD trading planThe US dollar is a more significant Forex currency than the euro, so the ECB willingness to weaken the euro alone is not enough to discourage the EURUSD bulls. Amid the growth of Joe Biden's approval rating, the EURUSD should continue rallying up to 1.1865-1.188. However, Donald Trump is not giving up yet, so one could sell on the price rise.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
submitted by MoonTrader_io to Moontrader_official [link] [comments]
Talk The Trader Talk: A Journey Into The Realm Of Trader SlangSlang is a natural evolution of a language under working conditions. Every industry has its own slang vocabulary, which may or may not be composed of morphologies of words directly related to the job. Sometimes situations related to the job may evolve or devolve into adjectives, verbs, nouns of even completely new words that reflect the object in question. To the uninitiated, such terms may sound like gibberish and could well resemble the talk of thugs that has been so vividly presented many times over in television series and movies.
Whether it is pidgin, slang, argot, or a dialect, industries have their own ways of expressing their ins and outs. For instance, the exhaust system of automobiles is often called the "puffer" among mechanics, a "fat finger" is a larger than intended trade among bankers, a "gat" is a weapon among street gangs, and "all day" is a life sentence among prisoners. The lists of slang terms are endless and are an extremely interesting read.
The Trader LingoTo make sure that MoonTrader users get into the feel of what it is like to be part of the crypto market, we have compiled a comprehensive summary of some of the most widespread slang terms used by traders. Knowing these terms is an important part of working on an exchange, as understanding what traders are talking about is half the job of becoming one of them and being able to delve into the processes taking place. To talk the talk and walk the walk, traders must understand each other and, most importantly, shorten their speech into a mixture of phrases comprehensible only for the initiated and mystical to outsiders.
Babysitting: A slang term used by traders all over the world from Wall Street to the most obscure exchanges in Africa. The term means holding a trade that has been losing out for a while in hopes that it will gain in price, usually in vain. For example: “You’ve been babysitting that option for way too long, it’s a hopeless cause.”
Crunching: A situation in which a stock’s or asset’s price starts falling rapidly and has no support levels. For example: “The XXX stock is going down the drain. It’s crunching, leave it!”
Jig Out: This is a situation when the market makes a sudden turn for the worse and an investor or trader loses out as a result. For example: “The YYY stock jigged out on me today. Lost half a mil.”
Learning Curve: A fairy common expression meaning the amount of time and effort someone, such as a budding new trader, has to put into something to master the art and “learn the ropes”. For example: “The learning curve for Forex is pretty steep.”
Melt: Another fairly common expression that can be encountered in the world of finance, which signifies that a lot of money has been lost and an account has been depleted. For example: “My account melted through today after the market jigged me out on that nut.”
Nut: While nuts may be tasty as a snack or very useful for keeping things bound together with bolts, in trading a nut is the total amount of commissions that have to be paid for a certain trade. For example: “The nut on ZZZ is crazy these days.”
Permabull / Permabear: Since bullish markets are positive and bearish markets are sleepy, the traders working on such a market are called bulls or bears. There are some optimists who believe that such markets are always there. These traders are called permabulls. The opposite are permabears. For example: “Even if the market is dead and floating, he will still act like a permabull”.
Printing on the “O”: If we consider that O is an extreme abbreviation of the term “Override”, then the phrase means that the price of an asset is below the bid price and there is an urgent need to sell it. “XYZ is printing on the Os all day!”
ScalpeScalping: The idea of scalping is opening hundreds and thousands of small trades in a short amount of time in hopes of generating a large amount of small profits. Scalpers are traders who engage in scalping. For example: “He’s a heck of a scalper.”
Slippage: A common situation for inexperienced traders who lose on assets that are insoluble and cause losses due to higher or lower prices. For example: “He’s been slipping on ZZZ for three weeks in a row.”
Squiggly Lines: Technical analysis consists of graphs and indicators that traders use to make sense of market dynamics. The lines on graphs are never straight, which would mean that the market is comatose, thus they are called squiggly, or uneven lines. For example: “I’ve been staring at the squiggly lines all day and my eyes are popping out.”
Tank: A tank is not only a military machine or a container, but also a verb, which could either mean to fill something up, like a container or a stomach, and also a drop. In this case, tanking means a market collapse. For example: “The market’s tanking! All is lost! All is lost!”
Unicorn, Vulture, Whale: The trading terminology bestiary is full of terms that have gained animalistic form. A unicorn is a situation reminiscent of the mythical beast, when a startup has reached a $1 billion valuation. A vulture is a trader who preys on falling assets and buys them up in hopes that they will rise in the future. A whale is a holder of a large amount of capital or an asset.
Stick: The US dollar has a lot of synonyms from bucks and dough to aces and greenbacks. The stick is another synonym for the US currency used in trading. For example: “Made a K load of sticks today trading XYZ.”
Whack: A fairy straightforward term meaning that a trader has lost a fair amount of money. For example: “I got whacked trading ZZZ the other day.”
Bottom Fishing: There are traders and there are speculators. When a market has “tanked”, assets usually cost much lower and a certain breed of traders emerges who start buying up assets that have lost in value in hopes of selling them off at higher prices later. Such actions are called bottom fishing, or scooping up assets that have floated to the surface of a market like dead fish after a bomb goes off underwater. For example: “The market has sunk today and the sharks are bottom fishing.”
Choppiness: The market is never a calm place and its trials and tribulations are often compared to storms and waves. Since waves can be choppy, or rough in terms of the height of their crests, it is fair to compare market volatility to wavy seas. For example: “The choppiness of the market is not allowing institutional investors to enter with their capital.”
Dark Pools: There is always liquidity on the market that is hid away from average traders. Such liquidity is called a dark pool, which is usually in the hands of special groups. In essence, these are trading volumes created by orders placed by institutional investors. For example: “The dark pools are buying up Bitcoins real quick.”
Dead Cat Bounce or Rubber Band Effect: Since markets are unpredictable, it is often possible for markets to suddenly rebound after seeming dead for a long time. Such a situation is called a dead cat bounce, or a rubber band effect, which is quite figurative in itself. For example: “The market is preparing for a possible dead cat bounce after the recent wave of news.”
Hodl: A bastardization of the term Hold, misspelled by a drunk BitcoinTalk user, which simply means holding an asset in hopes that it will rise in price. For example: “Hodl Bitcoin! Hodl it!”
Short squeeze: There are situations when an asset suddenly rises in price and forces traders to close their positions. For example: “The holders were forced to short squeeze after the price of ZZZ suddenly spiked”.
Resistance Zone: In technical analysis, this is the area between the current support and resistance areas. Prices usually start resisting other prices in such areas and may start falling. For example: “The resistance area of $120 has been reached for ZZZ and we can expect a decline to areas of $100.”
Fallen Angel: Assets that may have reached price heaven are not guaranteed to stay there and it often happens that a highly valued asset has suddenly lost in price. Usually, this biblical analogy refers to high yielding bonds that once had investment grades. For example: “ZZZ has turned into a fallen angel after the US introduced sanctions against country YYY.”
Fat Tail: In statistics, such cases are called outliers and signify that a value has moved away from the mean and has gained a high degree of riskiness. For example: “ZZZ is showing fat tails and will soon reach non-investment levels.”
Flavor: Given the abundance of types of orders and assets on the market, traders often do not distinguish between them and simply call them different flavors. For example: “How about some ZZZ flavor?”
Hit The Bid: A rather straightforward expression meaning that someone has decided to sell an asset. For example: “The price just hit the low, so go and hit the bid”.
Odd Lot: A lot is usually considered to be a million dollars. An odd lot is anything under a million dollars. For example: “I sold that odd lot of ZZZ yesterday.”
Smoke And Mirrors: The poetic expression has made its way onto the market and means that a corporate entity is distorting the market image in hopes of attaining its own goals, usually to make an asset seem more attractive. For example: “The market is all smoke and mirrors after ZZZ flushed its stocks on.”
The list of trading slang terms is endless in its variety and the only way to fully immerse one’s self into it is trading actively and gaining experience. Years of work on any market in any industry will eventually saturate a participant’s mind with the necessary skills and terminology turn any greenhorn into a pro.
Check us out at https://moontrader.io
Originally posted on our blog.
https://preview.redd.it/o80o6yjam8v21.png?width=464&format=png&auto=webp&s=336e7794ac6895e5a48a25adf8f7ee3d404f585fsubmitted by ecamli to BountyICO [link] [comments]
WHAT IS BORSER?
Borser is a cryptocurrency backed by shares of Borser S.A. Borser is the product of combined network marketing, capital markets, crowdfunding, and cryptocurrencies together, these offer the savvy business owner or investor the opportunity to tap into a market worth well over $1 trillion. The Borser platform intends to exploit the crypto blast as well as offer an exhaustive, direct answer for an entire exhibit of existing issues, identified with new companies, budgetary markets and the crypto space itself. Borser is a holding organization, at present holding offers to three separate associations, all giving answers for major monetary issues.
However, Borser platform came to the limelight to rectify and ameliorate the above problems. Borser is a project that has been developed to help in taking care of the problems that do not allow the cryptoworld to reach its goal. Borser, unlike other blockchain project is not just about creating cryptocurrencies , but also set to combine network marketing , capital markets , ICO crowdfunding as well as creation and usage of cryptocurrencies.
Borser is a project that has been developed to help in taking care of the problems that do not allow the cryptoworld to reach its goal. Borser, unlike other blockchain project is not just about creating cryptocurrencies , but also set to combine network marketing , capital markets , ICO crowdfunding as well as creation and usage of cryptocurrencies.
Börser S.A company holds shares of three organizations –1. Mi Wall Street, which represents considerable authority in giving high caliber monetary administrations recently saved for significant partnerships, to the little financial specialist. This has a feasible contribution in giving high check money related gatherings starting late put something separated for quintessential undertakings, to the little budgetary ace.
2. CrowdingFunds, a blockchain-based crowdfunding stage for speculators everywhere throughout the world.
3. X-Change, which empowers customers to consistently move Börser's cryptographic money into fiat cash for an extremely low charge.
Now Börser will combine the power of these three platforms to solve the financial problems. let's discuss the problems and their solution using Börser platform.
Problem-1: Concocting a splendid business thought is just the initial step of the long street to progress: to make your vision a reality, you need starting capital. As a rule, new businesses come up short since they basically can't meet the correct speculator on time and raise up the start-up capital. Also, most crowdfunding stages just reserve ventures situated inside the purview of the stage which makes extra money related obstacles for business people.
Solution: Börser will use crowdfunding platform grasping tasks from everywhere throughout the world by utilizing Initial Coin Offering (ICOs) subsidizing method. With Crowdfunding, we tended to the issue of crowdfunding stages just adjusting organizations inside their ward by depending on blockchain innovation. Business people would now be ableto make their very own token utilizing our restrictive crypto and dispatch ICOs.
Problem-2: Every investor from small to wealthy needs access to the scope of monetary administrations. The issue is that the vast majority of these, including oversaw records, Forex and Stock money market funds, and exact exchanging signals, have been saved for an affluent investor as it were.
***Solution:***Mi Wall Street goes about as a speculation center point, offering small investors a variety of budgetary administrations recently held just for real partnerships and financial specialists. To limit costs and guarantee the majority of our financial specialist customers approach bespoke quality exchanging signals, forex, and stock business just as oversaw accounts, we moved Mi Wall Street toward a Network Marketing establishment style partnership.
Problem-3: Seeking after better work prospects is just human instinct yet as an ever increasing number of individuals move to another country for work, a worldwide issue has risen: settlement. Digital forms of money and blockchain exchange innovation make new chances to change and modernize the manner in which settlements are exchanged crosswise over fringes however this is frequently unreasonably costly for the vast majority.
Solution: Börser tended to the settlement issue by propelling X-Change which will encourage smooth, precise and cost-productive trade between fiat money and Börser's digital currency. With X-Change, you can make a virtual wallet and connection it to a platinum card to exchange cash effortlessly and for nothing. In addition, Börser likewise offers programmed combination to X-Change which implies that by making ICOs on our stage, you'll additionally have your tokens naturally consolidated into X-Change!
Problem 4: The world saw a huge blast in cryptographic forms of money in a previous couple of years however the crypto advertise remains exceedingly precarious and unstable. This has to do with the very idea driving digital forms of money which even worldwide 'pioneers' like bitcoin are influenced by cryptographic forms of money basically don't reflect genuine resources. In addition, most cryptographic forms of money succumb to a similar shortcoming: exchange speed. Most frameworks can just deal with a couple of exchanges for every second, and security is regularly as yet deficient.
Solution: Rather than giving halfway answers for individual issues, Börser received an alternate, enormous picture approach. By making a holding organization and digital money, Börser intends to exploit the crypto blast as well as offer an exhaustive, direct answer for an entire exhibit of existing issues, identified with new companies, budgetary markets and the crypto space itself. Börser is a holding organization, at present holding offers to three separate associations, all giving answers for major monetary issues.
Available for sale:60,000,000 BOR (60%)
FinancialPre-sale value :1 BOR = 0.8 USD
ICO Price:1 BOR = one USD
Soft cap:3,000,000 USD
Hard cap:30,000,000 USD
Bounty0x ID: ecamli
buy(uint price, uint amount, bool make) sell(uint price, uint amount, bool make) cancel(uint price) withdraw(uint ether)and other ancillary exchange state getters (see Github repo for full API) such as :
etherBalanceOf(address holder) getBook() getOrdersOf(address trader) spread(bool side)The intrinsic exchange functionality works on a FIFO matching maketaker algorithm. A new order may be iteratively filled by multiple make orders on the book or if unfilled, can be put on the book itself as a make order.
Exhaustion candles are not to be used as a leading indicator to enter a trade solely based on them. There is however, a huge amount of information embedded in them. They give some clues as to what ... USD/CAD- Exhaustion bar at 1.0000 levels brings price down to 0.9500 levels.-----2. USD /JPY-Daily- Exhaustion at 95 levels leads to a big rally taking the price to 110 levels.-----3. USD/JPY -Daily -During Dec 2008 we have signals of reversal and then a retracement to end up in an exhaustion bar .The retesting of December levels signals a ... At each price level different volume is traded depending on what traders think the value of the asset is. Another mistake traders make is thinking that market exhaustion is only a reversal signal. Market exhaustion can occur in a move up as traders are rejecting lower prices or in a move down as traders are rejecting higher prices. For a move up to continue you want to see aggressive buyers ... Exhaustion is a situation in which a majority of participants trading in the same asset are either long or short, leaving few investors to take the other side of the transaction when participants ... Exhaustion Wicks: Exhaustion wicks are formed by much more subtle opposing market players. When characterizing an exhaustion wick, we are typically looking at a sessions slow times or during times of low volatility in the markets. We can see exhaustion wicks creating short term pull backs during off sessions to further the move during the next major session or we can see exhaustion wicks ... In one of my most recent webinars on price action forex trading, I talked about a key method for detecting when a trend is over-extended, which is to look for a climax or exhaustion reversal bar.. I had mentioned how from an order flow perspective why these exhaustion and climax bars tend to represent a high probability reversal coming based on the various participants and how they tend to ... 4. Exhaustion gap. An exhaustion gap is common in stock trading or on weekly Forex charts where you can actually see gaps. In the screenshot below you can see how price gapped higher above the first dotted resistance zone and then even tried to move higher as we see with the wick. Then, suddenly, the trend completely reversed and whereas ...
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